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CME Scoreboard: Prediction Detail

Prediction for CME (2023-08-30T22:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-08-30T22:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/26678/-1
CME Note: Partial halo seen in SOHO with clearer fronts more to the South and the NE. Its source is possibly the eruption of a long filament from NE to SW and centered around N15W15 seen in AIA 193/304 starting 2023-08-30T20:30Z, with post-eruptive arcades and dimming extending towards SE and encompassing the disk center. No clear CME arrival observed. However, there may be a weak arrival combined with the high speed stream observed at L1 on 2023-09-01 or 02. The flux rope is possibly seen in the solar wind magnetic field components, accompanied by a drop in temperature, around 2023-09-02T18:00Z. Overall this is a weak arrival signature.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-09-02T18:00Z (-8.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 4.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: WSA-ENLIL + Cone (BoM)
Prediction Method Note:

Please enter the following information for your prediction:
BoM ENLIL settings: 
ENLIL version: 2.7
Grid: 256x30x90
Resolution: low
Ambient settings: 
Ejecta settings: 
WSA version: 2.2
GONG: 

CME input parameters
Time at 21.5Rs boundary:
Radial velocity (km/s):
Longitude (deg):
Latitude (deg):
Half-angular width (deg):

Notes:

Lead Time: 44.25 hour(s)
Difference: -----
Prediction submitted by Duty Forecaster (ASWFC) on 2023-08-31T21:45Z

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